By Dijkhuizen, A. A. and Pasman, E. J. and Wentink, G. H., Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 1994
Research Paper Web Link / URL:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0167587794900604
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0167587794900604
Description
A state-transition model was developed to examine the control of bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) virus (BVDV) infections epidemiologically and economically at the farm level, using a computer spreadsheet program. The model offers the possibility of comparing and evaluating the alternatives ‘no intervention’ and ‘culling carriers’. All input variables can easily be modified to suit different conditions and areas, making it a flexible tool for policy making and decision support. Results of calculations with the most likely input values for Dutch conditions showed that culling the carriers which were persistently infected after an outbreak of BVD was economically unattractive (especially if there was any risk of reinfection). Further research is desired (1) to model the losses due to immunosuppression caused by BVDV infection, and (2) to predict more precisely the spread of BVDV after culling the carriers.
A state-transition model was developed to examine the control of bovine virus diarrhoea (BVD) virus (BVDV) infections epidemiologically and economically at the farm level, using a computer spreadsheet program. The model offers the possibility of comparing and evaluating the alternatives ‘no intervention’ and ‘culling carriers’. All input variables can easily be modified to suit different conditions and areas, making it a flexible tool for policy making and decision support. Results of calculations with the most likely input values for Dutch conditions showed that culling the carriers which were persistently infected after an outbreak of BVD was economically unattractive (especially if there was any risk of reinfection). Further research is desired (1) to model the losses due to immunosuppression caused by BVDV infection, and (2) to predict more precisely the spread of BVDV after culling the carriers.
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